|
Post by kevin5345179 on Feb 7, 2018 7:02:08 GMT 1
Hopefully announcement will come soon
|
|
|
Post by ff on Feb 7, 2018 10:24:30 GMT 1
So this is about top up deals, we know British Airways already and the rumour about ANA top up.
Who else? Etihad, Qatar and Singapore regarding transfer their options to orders? Or even Qantas to replace their B744ERs in the medium future?
|
|
philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
|
Post by philidor on Feb 7, 2018 12:20:18 GMT 1
Who else? Etihad, Qatar and Singapore regarding transfer their options to orders? Or even Qantas to replace their B744ERs in the medium future? QR has three options indeed, and a couple of years ago they intended to exercise them (AAB then always talked of their 'thirteen orders', three of which were options), but I have no idea of their present plans. I doubt EY and SQ have options. EY always said 10 were enough, and I doubt they are contemplating any large widebody order in their present situation. SQ seems to have decided to modernise its A380 fleet (new configuration, new interiors ...) to keep the same aircraft a few years more. There was talk of an interest from Thai Airways. In spite of all the A.net rumours to the contrary, the airline is pleased with the type performance in its fleet. LH is a question mark. They like the aircraft, but the size of the fleet they need seems to be a subject of internal debate. They first increased their order by exercising two options, then they cancelled these newly exercised options, keeping their initial order unchanged. Might they change their mind again ? I have no idea about KE, and I am not sure we should rule out any top-up order from them.
|
|
|
Post by ff on Feb 7, 2018 12:56:07 GMT 1
Singapore Air Show is happening right now, I know SQ only has 1 option on the book, but they are trying very hard to win back customers from EK, so I won't be surprised if they do a small top up order.
QR is in very difficult political and financial situation, I don't think they are going to convert options at this moment of time.
Both Korean airlines are doing badly, problem with China means Chinese transit passengers are not using them going to USA. So they have no potential growth at the moment.
China Southern will be an interesting case, they are always struggle to deploy the 5 A380 they've already got, because they can't get long haul routes out of Beijing - the demand for routes like Beijing to Paris is huge.
With the new Beijing airport opening next year (yes I know, we are still "talking" about the third runway in Heathrow after 30 years, they've built another new airport already within a couple of years), CZ been promised 40% of the landing slots and (limited) freedom of flying to anywhere from Beijing. If Chinese authority is going to convert the 10 A380s they've promised to AB, it could be CZ to take these frames in the next few years. It is in the right time frame as well.
Rumour is that after China Eastern joined Sky Team (MU's current CEO was CZ's ex-CEO), CZ is feeling been left behind, especially MU now exchange share rights with Delta and AF/KLM. So CZ is preparing to leave Sky Team and join the Oneworld (if CX accept the direct competitor to join the same alliance).
To compete with MU (also getting 40% landing slots) in the new Beijing Airport, A380 would be an ideal choice for CZ to show their capability, MU is not interested in A380 or B748.
|
|
philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
|
Post by philidor on Feb 7, 2018 14:30:41 GMT 1
CZ been promised 40% of the landing slots and (limited) freedom of flying to anywhere from Beijing. If Chinese authority is going to convert the 10 A380s they've promised to AB, it could be CZ to take these frames in the next few years. It is in the right time frame as well. .... To compete with MU (also getting 40% landing slots) in the new Beijing Airport, A380 would be an ideal choice for CZ to show their capability Will CZ have freedom on international routes or on domestic routes only ? Would authorities accept competition between Chinese airlines on international routes (there was/is a rule preventing that) ? Are you sure China promised to take ten frames ? I did not read this anywhere.
|
|
|
Post by airboche on Feb 7, 2018 14:45:22 GMT 1
LH seems to be unlikely as they have ordered so many 777-9.
|
|
mjoelnir
in service - 2 years
Posts: 4,089
|
Post by mjoelnir on Feb 7, 2018 15:19:18 GMT 1
LH seems to be unlikely as they have ordered so many 777-9. I do not see 20 777-9 as a big order for an airline like Lufthansa. They have together with the 18 A350-900 about 38 wide body frames on order. 7 A350 have already replaced 7 A340-600. They have 13 active A340-600, 17 active A340-300 and 13 active 747-400, that still have to be replaced. Some of the A340-600 that have been withdrawn from use are stored and could join the fleet again if there would be the need for more lift, but that would only increase the number of frames that would have to be replaced one day. That makes it 38 frames on order and at least 43 frames to be replace and that is without thinking about growth. I hardly imagine LH increasing the 777-9 numbers, as there was talk about that order being unnecessary big. I expect LH will add to the A350 order, perhaps even with a few A350-1000. I would not find it strange when LH would add a low number, 2 or 3, of A380 to replace a few more of the 747-400.
|
|
|
Post by ff on Feb 7, 2018 16:16:22 GMT 1
CZ been promised 40% of the landing slots and (limited) freedom of flying to anywhere from Beijing. If Chinese authority is going to convert the 10 A380s they've promised to AB, it could be CZ to take these frames in the next few years. It is in the right time frame as well. .... To compete with MU (also getting 40% landing slots) in the new Beijing Airport, A380 would be an ideal choice for CZ to show their capability Will CZ have freedom on international routes or on domestic routes only ? Would authorities accept competition between Chinese airlines on international routes (there was/is a rule preventing that) ? Are you sure China promised to take ten frames ? I did not read this anywhere. CZ been promised freedom of flying, but CA always find ways to block direct competition. That's why I said limited freedom.
10 frames from China are still on Airbus' order book, that was a promise.
|
|
philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
|
Post by philidor on Feb 7, 2018 17:38:49 GMT 1
CZ been promised freedom of flying, but CA always find ways to block direct competition. That's why I said limited freedom.
10 frames from China are still on Airbus' order book, that was a promise. If there is any limit, then expect it to apply to whatever routes CZ could efficiently use an A380 on. As regards the ex-HK Airlines order, now transferred to an undisclosed customer, I find it particularly shaky.
|
|
s543
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,957
|
Post by s543 on Feb 7, 2018 18:33:59 GMT 1
I have no idea about KE, and I am not sure we should rule out any top-up order from them. Forget KE - they have total cumulated LOSS well over 1 bil.USD !!!!!
|
|