s543
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,959 
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Post by s543 on Jan 10, 2015 12:56:49 GMT 1
Don't see Airbus surpassing Boeing again ( they were ahead in 2011 ) for the foreseeable future ( say next 10 years ). Geoff Mostly agree - here I believe there is a chance. behind 2018: We expect over 110 of A350 we expect A330 to keep on the track i.e. over 100 we expect A380 still around so it might be around 250. The 777 will not be over 90 there will not be 747 - or negligible 767 - KC46 will be around but how many ? 10 how many 787 will be produced ? That is the question. But will it be 150 ?  |
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philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
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Post by philidor on Jan 10, 2015 13:23:21 GMT 1
Don't see Airbus surpassing Boeing again ( they were ahead in 2011 ) for the foreseeable future ( say next 10 years ). Geoff Yet it might happen much earlier. In 2018-2020, A350 deliveries could be close to match 787 deliveries, the A380 should remain ahead of the 747, and the deciding factor might be the A330 and 777 respective numbers, unless 767 freighters are enough to give Boeing the lead. The fact that the A338/A339 will reach the market much before the 777X leaves the overall balance unpredictable in my opinion. An A330 back at 9 per month and a 777 down to 6 per month would temporarily swing the widebody balance. |
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s543
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,959
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Post by s543 on Jan 10, 2015 14:00:47 GMT 1
Uh huh - me and Philidor in our friendly bouts saying the same - happens not so often. Something is OFF.  |
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philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
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Post by philidor on Jan 10, 2015 14:03:47 GMT 1
Uh huh - me and Philidor in our friendly bouts saying the same - happens not so often. Something is OFF.  |
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ghorn
Outfitting in Hamburg
Posts: 993
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Post by ghorn on Jan 10, 2015 15:29:04 GMT 1
Don't see Airbus surpassing Boeing again ( they were ahead in 2011 ) for the foreseeable future ( say next 10 years ). Geoff Yet it might happen much earlier. In 2018-2020, A350 deliveries could be close to match 787 deliveries, the A380 should remain ahead of the 747, and the deciding factor might be the A330 and 777 respective numbers, unless 767 freighters are enough to give Boeing the lead. The fact that the A338/A339 will reach the market much before the 777X leaves the overall balance unpredictable in my opinion. An A330 back at 9 per month and a 777 down to 6 per month would temporarily swing the widebody balance. Don't think Airbus with take A350 production up to the same rate as the 787. Current target is 110/year as against 168 for the 787. Airbus does seem to be more cautious and consistent with production rates. I agree Boeing has a challenge keeping the 777 production rate up pending full 777X production. There could be an opportunity for Airbus but they may not feel it is worth the risks and costs. Geoff |
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s543
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,959
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Post by s543 on Jan 10, 2015 17:22:10 GMT 1
It all depends on the amount of orders each of the OEMs will be able to collect.....
If AB gets serious big orders for A350 they will go on with the increase - but I do agree they are much more careful i.e. slow with changes. The reasons are many and most are understandable - a lot is onto the EU work laws and traditions.
As a matter of fact even Aboulafia has written few month back (I would find it if I would try hard) that in a few years AB will be in better position than BO !
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ghorn
Outfitting in Hamburg
Posts: 993
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Post by ghorn on Jan 10, 2015 18:07:32 GMT 1
It all depends on the amount of orders each of the OEMs will be able to collect..... If AB gets serious big orders for A350 they will go on with the increase - but I do agree they are much more careful i.e. slow with changes. The reasons are many and most are understandable - a lot is onto the EU work laws and traditions. As a matter of fact even Aboulafia has written few month back (I would find it if I would try hard) that in a few years AB will be in better position than BO ! ..... and the orders depend on the availability of the planes. Boeing are betting that by ramping up 787 production they can generate additional orders. within the next few weeks the 787 could have a smaller orderbook than the A350. This is one reason why Airbus is doing the A330neo, so they've got something to sell !! Geoff |
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Baroque
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,991
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Post by Baroque on Jan 10, 2015 19:24:37 GMT 1
I think 2019 could be an interesting year. A350 and 787 production may be close. But it all depends on how many A330neos and A380s Airbus will push out that year compared to all other Boeing widebodies combined. My estimate would be a total of not more than 8+2 for the Airbus widebodies.
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ghorn
Outfitting in Hamburg
Posts: 993
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Post by ghorn on Jan 13, 2015 12:28:21 GMT 1
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ghorn
Outfitting in Hamburg
Posts: 993
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Post by ghorn on Jan 13, 2015 16:25:53 GMT 1
The last widebody delivered by Airbus in 2014 was their 2,500th. They've come a long way in the 40 years since A300 EIS.
Congratulations.
Geoff
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