XWB
in service - 11 years
Posts: 16,115
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Post by XWB on Jun 5, 2015 11:20:28 GMT 1
Airbus deliveries are also sluggish, with 10 in May with only 6 A330s. That makes 35 A330s delivered in 5 months so far this year. Are there 10+ frames awaiting delivery or has production been cut already ? At 10 per month x 11 working months a year, effective production is 9 frames per month / 110 per year. So with 35 deliveries in 5 months, we are missing 5 * (9 - (35 / 5)) = 10 frames. Now have a look at the production list: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Ff2DA4QRsnyx6Og6UREgvDckpdF2Iu7o4Vcj6m7EM_I/pub?single=true&gid=0&output=htmlYou'll see that: - The two Skymark frames (MSN 1607 & 1635) are not going anywhere soon - The 242T prototype (MSN 1628) is undergoing refurbishment - Avianca (MSN 1608) is not going anywhere soon - Hainan Airlines (MSN 1614 & 1634) are painted and parked at the delivery center with no activity around it - Kuwait Airways (MSN 1626) delivery delayed by almost two months due to electrical issues - AirAsia X (MSN 1619) should have been delivered by now but is still on the flight line - Tunisair (MSN 1631) should have been delivered last month but is also taking a bit longer than expected - A tanker (MSN 1610) for the RAF is awaiting transfer flight to Spain |
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ghorn
Outfitting in Hamburg
Posts: 993
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Post by ghorn on Jun 5, 2015 11:55:00 GMT 1
Airbus deliveries are also sluggish, with 10 in May with only 6 A330s. That makes 35 A330s delivered in 5 months so far this year. Are there 10+ frames awaiting delivery or has production been cut already ? At 10 per month x 11 working months a year, effective production is 9 frames per month / 110 per year. So with 35 deliveries in 5 months, we are missing 5 * (9 - (35 / 5)) = 10 frames. Now have a look at the production list: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Ff2DA4QRsnyx6Og6UREgvDckpdF2Iu7o4Vcj6m7EM_I/pub?single=true&gid=0&output=htmlYou'll see that: - The two Skymark frames (MSN 1607 & 1635) are not going anywhere soon - The 242T prototype (MSN 1628) is undergoing refurbishment - Avianca (MSN 1608) is not going anywhere soon - Hainan Airlines (MSN 1614 & 1634) are painted and parked at the delivery center with no activity around it - Kuwait Airways (MSN 1626) delivery delayed by almost two months due to electrical issues - AirAsia X (MSN 1619) should have been delivered by now but is still on the flight line - Tunisair (MSN 1631) should have been delivered last month but is also taking a bit longer than expected - A tanker (MSN 1610) for the RAF is awaiting transfer flight to Spain Thanks, great analysis. Hopefully there will be a surge of A330 deliveries soon. Geoff |
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s543
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,959 
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Post by s543 on Jun 5, 2015 13:49:54 GMT 1
Thanks XWB - you nicely explained 10 frames, but - the production indeed runs in reality only 11 month but this missing month has not yet come. It is roughly half of a month during summer + Xmas. i.e. until know no vacation so we should have 10/month unrestricted so in the reality 15 pcs are missing - we have of course slow start after end of the year rush....
We will see what will happen next month.
It will be interesting what those deals Leahy mentioned for PAS will be and how much of the ceo-neo gap will be filled up.
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Baroque
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,991
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Post by Baroque on Jun 5, 2015 14:19:11 GMT 1
The 777X will therefore receive a different name some day, unless Boeing just drops the 'X', considering that the 777 'umbrella' and the subtype names (778 and 779) are enough. You have a point there. 777X could be a common designation to describe the development of both the variants, instead of needing to say -8 and -9 every time. Something to note, the current generation 77W and 77L were launched as 777X too back in 2000. |
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s543
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,959
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Post by s543 on Jun 5, 2015 18:46:08 GMT 1
I believe it is going to be similar to 737. The number was so phenomenal they did not want to replace it - even if the NG is quite different.
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philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
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Post by philidor on Jun 5, 2015 21:24:05 GMT 1
At 10 per month x 11 working months a year, effective production is 9 frames per month / 110 per year. So with 35 deliveries in 5 months, we are missing 5 * (9 - (35 / 5)) = 10 frames. I think planned A330 production is down to 9 per month in 2015 --> 9x11 = 99 per year (not 110). |
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XWB
in service - 11 years
Posts: 16,115
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Post by XWB on Jun 8, 2015 9:56:05 GMT 1
It will be 9 per month starting from Q4 2015, current production is still at 10 per month.
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philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
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Post by philidor on Jun 8, 2015 11:57:35 GMT 1
Thank you, XWB.
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XWB
in service - 11 years
Posts: 16,115
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Post by XWB on Jun 13, 2015 11:10:23 GMT 1
MSN 1614 has finally been delivered.
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ghorn
Outfitting in Hamburg
Posts: 993
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Post by ghorn on Jun 21, 2015 11:12:39 GMT 1
Some interesting announcements from the Paris Airshow but probably not many actual widebody orders at this stage.
Much needed good news for the A330-300 and the 747-8F.
The move away from the 787-8 seems to be continuing.
Won't be around to update the spreadsheet with the end of June figures.
Will do an update around the end of July.
Geoff
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