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Post by stealthmanbob on Jan 6, 2016 17:24:22 GMT 1
A350 deliveries in 2018 should be between 100 - 105 max. The ramp up to loading at 10 per month is the end of 2017, not deliveries.
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XWB
in service - 11 years
Posts: 16,115
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Post by XWB on Jan 6, 2016 17:29:51 GMT 1
A350 deliveries in 2018 should be between 100 - 105 max. The ramp up to loading at 10 per month is the end of 2017, not deliveries. By then the assembly lead time will be down to just 2 months (down from 8 months today), so an assembly increase in Q4 2017 should hit the delivery stream only 2 months later. |
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philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
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Post by philidor on Jan 6, 2016 17:34:50 GMT 1
The 787 rate won't go up to 14 per month until the end of the decade, so 2018 should look like this: 747 - 2 767 - 24 777 - 60 787 - 140 Total: 226 A330 - 66 A350 - 120 A380 - 20 Total: 206 Boeing has the 'advantage' of the 767 line, that's about it. I agree with your forecasts in general, except that I think it might take Airbus one more year to come that close to Boeing in widebody deliveries. I doubt that the 787 will ever be produced at a rate of more than 12 per month, and even that rate should not be sustainable. EDIT : the reason I see the same situation coming one year later is that I think Airbus may still struggle with A350 production. |
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Post by stealthmanbob on Jan 6, 2016 17:36:23 GMT 1
A350 deliveries in 2018 should be between 100 - 105 max. The ramp up to loading at 10 per month is the end of 2017, not deliveries. By then the assembly lead time will be down to just 2 months (down from 8 months today), so an assembly increase in Q4 2017 should hit the delivery stream only 2 months later. Sorry I had also factored in that Airbus works to an 11 month calendar year ? |
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s543
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,959 
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Post by s543 on Jan 6, 2016 17:47:53 GMT 1
Geoff, I do believe XWBs numbers to be more realistic - and I also do not believe they will in real life go above 105 with A350 i.e, on the opposite I would not be surprised if there is more 330neo than 66.
On the other side will BO sell enough 777s to sustain 60 in 2018 ?
BO cca 225 / AB cca 200
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Post by stealthmanbob on Jan 6, 2016 18:19:41 GMT 1
Geoff, I do believe XWBs numbers to be more realistic - and I also do not believe they will in real life go above 105 with A350 i.e, on the opposite I would not be surprised if there is more 330neo than 66. On the other side will BO sell enough 777s to sustain 60 in 2018 ? BO cca 225 / AB cca 200 Do you mean my numbers ? 100 - 105 ? thats the second time today someone else has got credit for my posts  |
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Post by addasih on Jan 6, 2016 19:23:35 GMT 1
Geoff, I do believe XWBs numbers to be more realistic - and I also do not believe they will in real life go above 105 with A350 i.e, on the opposite I would not be surprised if there is more 330neo than 66. On the other side will BO sell enough 777s to sustain 60 in 2018 ? BO cca 225 / AB cca 200 Do you mean my numbers ? 100 - 105 ? thats the second time today someone else has got credit for my posts and s543 are teasing you  |
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Post by stealthmanbob on Jan 6, 2016 19:50:14 GMT 1
Do you mean my numbers ? 100 - 105 ? thats the second time today someone else has got credit for my posts and s543 are teasing you I thought I had left school 35 years ago, bullies  |
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s543
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,959
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Post by s543 on Jan 6, 2016 23:49:19 GMT 1
NOOOO !!! We gave credit to your idea ( pshhhh silently  ) It is fun - guessing what will be in 3 years. We would not remember what we did guess now anyway.  ( Well one exception - Fabien will remember for sure - we can bet on it - he will say it was computer - fast checking etc... but we know better  ) |
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ghorn
Outfitting in Hamburg
Posts: 993
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Post by ghorn on Jan 7, 2016 0:55:28 GMT 1
NOOOO !!! We gave credit to your idea ( pshhhh silently ) It is fun - guessing what will be in 3 years. We would not remember what we did guess now anyway. ( Well one exception - Fabien will remember for sure - we can bet on it - he will say it was computer - fast checking etc... but we know better ) Well I'll remember too. I'm going to put all the guesses into Google Docs and republish them in 3 years time !! Geoff |
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