Baroque
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,991
|
Post by Baroque on Jun 2, 2014 14:27:50 GMT 1
One thing I am surprised - that AB believes they can sell over 1000 pcs of 330NEO - it seems to me as a LOT.  That does sound a little high. 1000 units to 2030 means an average of 7/mo. I'm of the opinion that it would be closer to around 5/mo for a 12 year average, ~700 units in total. |
|
s543
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,959 
|
Post by s543 on Jun 3, 2014 2:58:56 GMT 1
Maybe they are already adding the "R" ? This one might have a good chance and if it would be with new engines - the better  |
|
|
|
Post by airboche on Jun 4, 2014 10:04:31 GMT 1
From my point of view the A330 has a big advantage: It's well established, fits to any A320-operator, it can be produced cheap and it's proven easy to repair technology for developing markets with low seatmile costs if you squeeze in enough seats.
A reengine would be costly for some "end of life" design. Wouldn't this ruin the cost advantage from above while not giving you a competitive entirely brand new aircraft? Plus it might take away A350 business.
Keep the A330 simple and cheap. Lower the price if you need to but don't make it a A350 V2.
|
|
s543
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,959
|
Post by s543 on Jun 4, 2014 18:42:34 GMT 1
I do not believe it is this case. It is considerably smaller, shorter range.....
|
|
philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
|
Post by philidor on Jun 4, 2014 21:06:45 GMT 1
From my point of view the A330 has a big advantage: It's well established, fits to any A320-operator, it can be produced cheap and it's proven easy to repair technology for developing markets with low seatmile costs if you squeeze in enough seats. A reengine would be costly for some "end of life" design. Wouldn't this ruin the cost advantage from above while not giving you a competitive entirely brand new aircraft? Plus it might take away A350 business. Keep the A330 simple and cheap. Lower the price if you need to but don't make it a A350 V2. All that is true. The other side of the coin is that the A330 now is far less efficient than its competitor. As the 787 becomes available, the appeal of the A330 wanes. On the other hand, with a new engine and a few other improvements, and still being comparatively cheap, the aircraft will compete on an almost level footing. |
|
|
|
Post by airboche on Jun 5, 2014 10:40:10 GMT 1
A 330neo will be a serious inhouse competitor for the A350 putting it under constant price pressure. It means sort of going back to the original A350-concept before the XWB got invented while having funded a second (quite promising) product for the same job in parallel. It might very much kill any A350-800 prospect and eat into the lower end market of the planned A350-familiy. Well on the upper end there might still be enough room to grow profitable for the A350 XWB. But in only some years time any A330 both "classic" or "neo" will be an exot. Look at the 767: It's done on the commercial market.
|
|
ghorn
Outfitting in Hamburg
Posts: 993
|
Post by ghorn on Jun 5, 2014 12:09:42 GMT 1
One of the main advantages of the A330neo is that it makes use of the available production capability. If Airbus could quickly ramp up to 200 A350s a year then they would probably stop investing in the A330. Delivering 200+ widebodies a year will generate a lot of cash.
Geoff
|
|
Baroque
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,991
|
Post by Baroque on Jun 5, 2014 15:07:53 GMT 1
A 330neo will be a serious inhouse competitor for the A350 putting it under constant price pressure. Actually, I see the A330neo relieving the A350 from pricing pressure. For one thing, the latter is much bigger and more capable with more range and payload. The only sales I see it will be taking away is probably the regional variants. And this is a good thing for Airbus. The production unit cost for the regional and the regular is always going to be the same for Airbus, but the former has to be heavily discounted to sell if airlines don't need the extra capacity, range, payload and a new type in the fleet. Airbus can give them the A330neo as an alternative and use the free slots to sell the regular A350 variants to customers and extract bigger margins, especially on the -1000 for which it badly needs more production capacity. Investing $1 billion in the A330neo will help improve the overall profitability of the widebody line up. As a bonus, you can add a very efficient freighter and an MRTT variant to the line up. As to why Airbus had to scrap the original A350 Mk1, keep in mind that Airbus needed to do something about the faltering A340-600 sales. They were forced to develop an all new aircraft sized to replace that as well. Otherwise they won't have anything in the 300-400 seat segment. For what it was, I think it may have still sold well. |
|
philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
|
Post by philidor on Jun 5, 2014 16:15:54 GMT 1
I think Baroque is right : one major purpose of launching an A330 NEO is to vacate slots that otherwise would be allocated to the A358, and use them to build more lucrative variants (A359, A3510). I see a larger line-up as an undisputable advantage, coming of course at the cost of additional investment.
|
|
s543
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,959
|
Post by s543 on Jun 5, 2014 17:21:23 GMT 1
I also think that Baroque described it nicely - and we should already accept that 350-800 is dead, as was discussed many times. I also do not believe 350-1100 will show up since it might compete even with 380, but it is still more probable than the 800.
They have all the tooling for 330 ready, so the start-up cost for the neo production would be small.
|
|
