s543
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,959
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Post by s543 on Oct 2, 2015 21:16:09 GMT 1
No A380neo decision this year, and no EK widebody order this year. I've always felt that this is a staring contest between Airbus and Tim Clark. Airbus: "Commit to the A350 and we'll give you the A380neo." Tim Clark: "Commit to the A380neo and we'll give you the A350 order." A matter of who blinks first... If that is the case, somebody can do the chicken and we see orders, perhaps for 787-10. Very nice Baroque.... we might add: Airbus: Commit to the 78J and you will never see the A380neo
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Post by addasih on Oct 2, 2015 21:19:41 GMT 1
I think Airbus needs Emirates (money) than then Emirates needs Airbus. If they do what you are saying s543 then say goodbye for the whole A380 program
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Post by stealthmanbob on Oct 2, 2015 22:45:43 GMT 1
I think Airbus needs Emirates (money) than then Emirates needs Airbus. If they do what you are saying s543 then say goodbye for the whole A380 program The oil money is running out and so are their reserves of oil, the price of a barrel of oil has fallen about 60% in 18 months, and does not look like rising soon, they are probably pumping it out at just above cost. The Gulf states saw this coming that's why 15+ yrs or so ago we have seen them investing in tourism and aviation. They were / are spending their money as an investment for a life after living off of oil income ! But the problem is their income has been slashed ! Airbus can easily produce another 120 A380s, 4 to 5 years more production then call it a day. But then the manpower and hanger space can be used to increase A320 and A350 production. Less models, more efficient, more profit !
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Post by addasih on Oct 2, 2015 23:37:20 GMT 1
I don't think oil price has anything negative to do with Emirates (unlike Etihad and Qatar) since Dubai has very limited amount of oil but I agree its trying to make itself as a tourist attraction and real estate attraction
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Post by stealthmanbob on Oct 3, 2015 0:21:21 GMT 1
I don't think oil price has anything negative to do with Emirates (unlike Etihad and Qatar) since Dubai has very limited amount of oil but I agree its trying to make itself as a tourist attraction and real estate attraction Dubai is just a city not a country / state ? Etihad and Emirates are from the UAE, Qatar is a different country A6 or A7 ?
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Post by addasih on Oct 3, 2015 2:00:46 GMT 1
I don't think oil price has anything negative to do with Emirates (unlike Etihad and Qatar) since Dubai has very limited amount of oil but I agree its trying to make itself as a tourist attraction and real estate attraction Dubai is just a city not a country / state ? Etihad and Emirates are from the UAE, Qatar is a different country A6 or A7 ? stealthmanbob I was born in that area and speak the same language so I know this region like my name. Even though Etihad and Emirates are both are two emirates (states) of the same country (UAE), both are running independently by two royal families. Both trying to proof they are better than the other. When Dubai economy got a big hit few years ago, Abu Dhabi was looking to buy EK in return they bailout Dubai but Dubai ruler refused. Instead as a compromise, Dubai named their newly finished tallest building in the world in the name of Abu Dhabi ruler (Burg Khalifa) instead of Al- Maktoum. And yes Qatar is different country. Abu Dhabi (Etihad) has a lot of Oil. Qatar has a lot of natural gas. While Dubai has neither
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s543
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,959
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Post by s543 on Oct 3, 2015 8:00:51 GMT 1
Just comment - I was of course joking, similar to joking Baroque made. My comment was of course not meant seriously. Without EK order the A380 is dead not important if the ceo or neo. There are two possibilities : The neo will NOT come - so those cca 120 frames are built and the "END of A380" The neo will COME backed by significant EK order + some others might come too.... How the decision works financially is a question and all depends on the amount of pcs of the neo sold..... minus the value of the unused tooling already paid of AB has at it's facilities. Anyway I do believe that the economy will be tight and AB will have trouble to make some significant profit on the A380neo. EK as a big customer will get low price i.e. the margins will not be huge. Up to that AB is fighting with available personnel in TLS/HAM areas (as mentioned by stelthmanbob) for increase in 320+350 productions. So it might be financially sound to just be happy with the A380 line closed and transfer of all the resources to those without doubt profitable and running programs. We will know the answer to those questions - as I believe - in up to a year
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s543
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,959
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Post by s543 on Oct 3, 2015 10:31:04 GMT 1
One more remark - Any potential customer for A380neo is a big customer which means demanding low price i.e. the margin on A380 from principle low. The design and production of A380 was prestigious thing to show "We can" but financially I believe it was problematic always.
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Baroque
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,991
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Post by Baroque on Oct 4, 2015 5:38:55 GMT 1
I think Airbus needs Emirates (money) than then Emirates needs Airbus. If they do what you are saying s543 then say goodbye for the whole A380 program In my opinion, it is the other way around - that EK needs Airbus more than Airbus needs EK. EK is one airline whose business model as it is really needs A380 class aircraft or have to consider downsizing to that level of the other two ME3 airlines. Flying this many seats in multiple frequencies to multiple long haul destinations would strain their operations especially with respect to infrastructure capacities, employee and maintenance costs and so many other things. And I'm with Tim Clark when he says that the A380 does what no other aircraft at present can give him. Airbus on the other hand should be ready to pull the plug on the A380 programme at any time it deems it unsatisfactory to its bottom line. They should ask the question what is in it for them to spend money on developing an aircraft that has little market prospect when they can just as well use it for something else worthwhile. EK have already broken their trust big time with the A350 canx. They should be wary of building new business with the airline and be hard on driving the deal or just walk away. The money saved on A380neo development could be put to other uses like better supersizing the A350 to take the 777X head on, and the relieved engineering resources and production facilities can be used to boost output of more profitable aircraft as stealthmanbob pointed out.
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kronus
in service - 1 year
Posts: 3,412
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Post by kronus on Oct 4, 2015 16:42:07 GMT 1
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