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Post by kevin5345179 on Feb 16, 2019 18:57:34 GMT 1
feels like he didn't even see it coming from his facial reaction ..... I guess the bigger question to ask is whether QR is willing to drop their 777X IF A35K MTOW actually increase to 316T. The MTOW of the A350-1000 has already be increased to 316t. So the question has to be about further increase. I thought that was the number I read, but I must got confused  |
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kronus
in service - 1 year
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Post by kronus on Feb 18, 2019 11:53:35 GMT 1
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Post by ca350 on Feb 20, 2019 0:50:36 GMT 1
Leeham brought out an interesting idea that the introduction of UltraFan engine to -900 and -1000 will help the business case of -2000. With the new engine, -2000 will have "significantly superior economics to the 777-9 and a longer range". But market size is the problem after Boeing gets the head start. |
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Baroque
in service - 2 years
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Post by Baroque on Feb 20, 2019 3:37:45 GMT 1
Leeham brought out an interesting idea that the introduction of UltraFan engine to -900 and -1000 will help the business case of -2000. With the new engine, -2000 will have "significantly superior economics to the 777-9 and a longer range". But market size is the problem after Boeing gets the head start. I don't think market size is that much of an issue. Consider: - lots of 77W that may start needing replacement, some of which may be captured by the 777X/A350-2000 territory. - may be a few hundred 747s and A380s up for replacement as well - some potential to up-gauge to slot constrained airports using an aircraft that has very compelling economics - air travel will continue to grow Boeing has a head start, but I think their timing is a bit questionable. But most importantly, unlike Boeing, Airbus will be able to roll off the A350-2000 off the same production infrastructure as the smaller siblings, meaning that it can sustain a very low rate production profitably as long as the others continue to be produced en masse. Boeing can't do that with the 777X. In addition to being overtaken on economics, the 777X becomes a little more exposed on margins at low rates, i.e. Airbus can really put pressure on pricing. |
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Post by stealthmanbob on Feb 20, 2019 14:12:10 GMT 1
Boeing has a head start, but I think their timing is a bit questionable. But most importantly, unlike Boeing, Airbus will be able to roll off the A350-2000 off the same production infrastructure as the smaller siblings, meaning that it can sustain a very low rate production profitably as long as the others continue to be produced en masse. Boeing can't do that with the 777X. The B777x is currently being built on the B787 surge line, B777x production will later move into the current B777 FAL lines ! The only new building built was the large one for the wings ! |
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Baroque
in service - 2 years
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Post by Baroque on Feb 20, 2019 15:24:15 GMT 1
The B777x is currently being built on the B787 surge line, B777x production will later move into the current B777 FAL lines ! The only new building built was the large one for the wings ! I'm looking at factors beyond just the physical space. At low production volumes, cost per unit is going to be higher, leaving you with less margin to work with. The A350-2000 will also be low volume but you will be producing it in a facility that manufactures much of its components and parts at rates of 10-13 per month. What rate can the 777X sustain? |
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Post by stealthmanbob on Feb 20, 2019 16:14:11 GMT 1
The B777x is currently being built on the B787 surge line, B777x production will later move into the current B777 FAL lines ! The only new building built was the large one for the wings ! I'm looking at factors beyond just the physical space. At low production volumes, cost per unit is going to be higher, leaving you with less margin to work with. The A350-2000 will also be low volume but you will be producing it in a facility that manufactures much of its components and parts at rates of 10-13 per month. What rate can the 777X sustain? Production rate is supposed to get to 8 per month by the end of 2021 / early 2022, with a plan to increase to 10 a month there after if required, I grant you they need some more orders first 😉 |
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mjoelnir
in service - 2 years
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Post by mjoelnir on Feb 20, 2019 18:41:17 GMT 1
The B777x is currently being built on the B787 surge line, B777x production will later move into the current B777 FAL lines ! The only new building built was the large one for the wings ! I'm looking at factors beyond just the physical space. At low production volumes, cost per unit is going to be higher, leaving you with less margin to work with. The A350-2000 will also be low volume but you will be producing it in a facility that manufactures much of its components and parts at rates of 10-13 per month. What rate can the 777X sustain? The initial production rate will be 3.5 a month. With the current order situation and a big part of the orders to be delivered over many years, a production increase is very unlikely. |
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Baroque
in service - 2 years
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Post by Baroque on Feb 21, 2019 5:39:35 GMT 1
Production rate is supposed to get to 8 per month by the end of 2021 / early 2022, with a plan to increase to 10 a month there after if required, I grant you they need some more orders first 😉 Rate 8 sounds very optimistic. It would mean that they will have to find orders to fill out 800 delivery positions for the next 10 years. I think it correlates somewhat with the number of 77W, 747 and A380 that would need replacing over the same period and some growth. But Airbus can definitely be expected to capture a significant chunk of that with the A350. Very unlikely they would be able to maintain that through to 2030. The 777X's present backlog would probably last till 2024-2025 but as mentioned, airlines like EK have spread out their deliveries over much longer terms. Considering it is 2019 now, Boeing have their work cut out to get enough orders to make rate 8 a reality from 2022 onward. I think the bulk of the 77W replacement wave doesn't hit till about 2025, which would be well timed for the A350neo/stretch. |
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Post by kevin5345179 on Feb 26, 2019 23:39:02 GMT 1
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