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Post by kevin5345179 on Feb 22, 2017 5:28:43 GMT 1
The problem is then the B777 is really not useful for most of CI's routes. So they need more A350'S and then get rid of the B777. I mean the options are? Keep A330 on up to 10hr flights (Not fully flat beds and so they need to discount big time to compete). If FRA is only at 60% capacity one wonders when they were flying the B747 which had greater number of seating. I was actually picturing that they will utilize their 77W mainly in North America as further codeshare agreement with DL announced recently with the existed ones (with VX as well) should enable more destinations than before. Also, DL finally start to sale the codeshare flights opterating by CI between SFO TPE and LAX TPE. Wasn't expecting A359 coming to SFO at all especially with current 90% load factor ..... I check more historical data 85% (9/2016), 86% (10/2016), 74% (11/2016), 70% (12/2016) Looks like I just picked the lowest month of all  |
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tris06
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Post by tris06 on Feb 22, 2017 6:54:25 GMT 1
Well even more crazy is BR (Eva air) is going to eventually have 21 flights per week between SFO-TPE on their B777. I personally think its overkill or they are going for really low yielding crowd.
Yes that was the plan but last year the boss at CI resigned due to the protests. So new boss new ideas.
I think it sucks personally as just putting the biggest or best on NA routes while Eva is oversupplying the market is well not the best idea.
While I might have some personal attachment due to it being my own country. CI does great on Australia-TPE routes and yet maybe takes it for granted if it does not put the A350 on there soon.
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Post by kevin5345179 on Feb 24, 2017 4:45:50 GMT 1
just realized that CI is going to use 5 A359s to fly "only" 9 long haul routes per week while rest of flights are regional ........ didn't see this coming at all
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tris06
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Post by tris06 on Feb 25, 2017 3:53:56 GMT 1
Well compared to BR CI has a much larger regional network which is its strength.
Plus Asia is more dominated by wide body flights compared to say USA. TPE-HKG is almost 70/80% widebody planes.
So now really they need to focus on long haul which they have said they would do for the next 5 years.
Concerning US flights they are best do careful expansion rather than rushing into it as it will be oversupplied for sure.
The 5th frame should be delivered within the next 2 weeks.
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tris06
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Post by tris06 on Mar 14, 2017 6:11:53 GMT 1
CI plans to fly from TPE-Gatwick from 1st of December 2017 3 times per week using the A350.
They could not find a suitable time slot for their flights to LHR.
A good win for Gatwick though. The more international flights the more likely they will start having airlines putting in proper Airline lounges.
Also the reason for SFO having the A350 from May 2017 is that the airline is going to start with C check overhauls which will take 1/2 planes out of service.Quite obvious they were using their B777's at full utilisation if they had to do this.
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Post by kevin5345179 on Mar 17, 2017 4:30:34 GMT 1
I've been looking through the current and future routes for CI's A350, it seems that they don't have additional space for further new routes until next year. Based on my rough estimation, CI needs 9 planes to fly all the routes and they are projecting to take 6 more planes this year which make the fleet to 10 planes total. It seems that we won't see CDG flight this year ..... Unless the freed 77W is going to be the primary workhorse on that route.
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tris06
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Post by tris06 on Mar 17, 2017 15:24:13 GMT 1
Your probably right. Plus one would think that all long haul and mid haul routes need upgrading first before new routes.
x3/x4 BNE/AKL, x6/x8 SYD/AKL and X3 MEL/CHC all these flights are currently using the A330 which is intended for only regional flights in the future. So we are looking at maybe another 3/4 planes taken there.
So in 2018 they will have 4 more deliveries. I guess they might be able to add one more new route and thats it.
So I have been saying with the 6 options thats a definite that they will go through. But when will they be delivered? Also they could easily take another 6/8 frames on top of that as now all their B777's are leased aircraft... How many years do airlines lease such frames 6/8years?
The regional plane order I don't think is really needed delivered until around 2022/23 when the 1st A330's will be getting to 17/18yrs old at which point the new cabins will be 6yrs old. I would expect retirement of the A330's starting from like 2024/2025.
Then also narrowbody order which is another thing.
So its quite crazy how much they need to order in the next 2/3yrs otherwise they will be short and unable to have even minimal amount growth. But I do think the long hual planes are more urgent right now.
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Post by kevin5345179 on Mar 17, 2017 17:51:27 GMT 1
The lease term for the 5 77Ws is 12 years so they'll have those planes for another 9 years.
I'm wondering what they are going to do with the 77Ws after the C-checks ?
Looks like they'll free up at least 1 plane looking at given schedule.
To be honest, I believe BNE, SYD, MEL should keep using A330.
It does the job (C'mon only 9 to 10 hr flight?) and I would say only switch to A350 during high season.
I calculated the load factor for 2016 since the official report is not out yet
BNE: 68.5% MEL: 73.7% SYD: 72.1%
The only reason I think CI wants to upgauge to A350 on BNE route is to compete with BR.
This route never achieve 80% load factor in a month last year.
Unless "new aircraft" really sale; otherwise, I think it is a total waste ....
I agree that they really need more aircraft.
I think the 6 options for another A350 will do for long haul and the purchase really should focus on A330/B787 size airplanes.
I don't think putting A330 on 10 hr flight is a problem; in fact, DL put them on SEA-HKG route which is 14 hr trip.
I think they should start to free up some A330 from less demanding regional route and replace with A321 size planes.
Utilize A330 on new (perhaps experimental as well) routes and those big planes really need to be in the high capacity routes.
I think they need to make up their mind soon otherwise all they can do is lease airplanes in last minute.....
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tris06
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Post by tris06 on Mar 18, 2017 2:59:31 GMT 1
(The lease term for the 5 77Ws is 12 years..) I believe the planes they also owned have been sold and leased back. So all 10 frames are on lease.
Australian destinations are a very different route compared to many. Not overly dominated with business demand. Also very tourist Dependant from both sides.
As a frequent traveler on these routes in December/January/February or June/July/August/early September (depending also when Chinese New Year hits) Almost always 1 side is full to capacity and its extremely difficult to get an economy ticket even 4/6 months before hand.
I think the airlines during these periods make good profits with only around 80% average loadings. That is because on the side of great demand a high price is extracted. Just this January the cheapest we could do was around 1500 USD for an 8hr return flight in economy. Business was sold out months ahead as well. But if my memory served me right they were selling Business for around 3000 USD.
Hence why they have in the past either added the B747 or added more frequency. Apart from a few other weeks in the year loadings would be pretty ordinary. All carriers in and out of Australia face the same issue.
Yes they will need to compete with BR as they have increased to x4 weekly year round so even BR sees the demand.
So also when concerning LGW flights it is important to see that loadings will increase to Taipei from Australia.Most airlines flying between say Australia and Asia now use fully flat so in this context yes the A350 is needed unless they put fully flat in the A330.
I think most people would agree an 8-11hr flight deserves a fully flat bed these days and all these flights are over night flights.
Using Delta as an example is not exactly aiming high and its far from the norm these days. Look at all the majors today and for any flight over 5/6hrs you can expect a full flat bed.
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Post by kevin5345179 on Mar 18, 2017 5:16:53 GMT 1
You are right about that part: 4 was leased from GECAS and the remaining 6 were sold and leased back.
The duration of lease is still 12 years for the entire fleet and the first lease terminate at 2026.
I picked few random month to check and it seems that the load factor difference between inbound and outbound is ~ 12% for the most. Majority of them are within resonable range like 3~5% difference. I still believe increase frequencies during high season should do the job. A330 is actually the right plane for the route.
I see why BR sees the demand as their load factor is actually pretty healthy compare to CI's load factor. With the increase in frequency, I really don't see why they want to put A350 on the route given the current data doesn't really support such capacity. The correlation between LGW and BNE is not proven yet and I don't understand why they want to make a such aggresive move. I do agree their long-haul A330 should have lie-flat beds but doesn't see that coming at the moment .......
I don't think there is anything wrong for taking DL as example as they really know how to be profitable. Also, they do have lie-flat on their long haul A330 for certain.
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